The Swedish krona fell today against the euro, touching the lowest level in a week, after the consumer and manufacturing gauges declined this month, sparking talks about an interest rate cut. The currency advanced versus the US dollar.
The Consumer Confidence Indicator fell from 5.2 to 3.6 in May. The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry declined from -9 in April to -15 this month. The Riksbank will hold its policy meeting on July 3 and today’s data suggests that policy makers may cut interest rates during the gathering.
USD/SEK dropped from 6.6460 6.6444 as of 12:06 GMT today. Meanwhile, EUR/SEK advanced from 8.5967 to 8.6017.
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Euro is paring some of its earlier losses, and even moving higher against the US dollar today, getting help from the latest German Ifo reading.
After falling earlier today, the euro is eking out gains against the US dollar. The latest German Ifo reading is helping matters for the 17-nation currency.
The latest Ifo report shows an improvement to 105.7 from the 104.4 level seen in April. This unexpected improvement follows on the heels of two straight months of declines. Additionally, the Bundesbank predicts that Germany’s economy will pick up the pace — even as the rest of the eurozone remains mired in the sovereign debt crisis.
However, with Germany showing signs of life, there is hope for the rest of the eurozone. Many Forex traders are hoping that Germany’s economic turnaround can fuel the rest of the eurozone. There are also hopes that the worst is over, and that the ECB will stick to its pledge to support the 17-nation currency no matter what happens.
For now, that’s enough to help lift the euro out of its earlier losses and begin making progress against the US dollar.
At 13:46 GMT EUR/USD is up to 1.2935 from the open at 1.2933. EUR/GBP is up to 0.8566 from the open at 0.8561. EUR/JPY is down to 130.7515 from the open at 131.9350.
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The Swiss franc retreated today after jumping yesterday on risk aversion, but retained most of its gains. Additionally, the currency advanced versus the yen, against which it fell yesterday.
Forex traders were not in mood to risk and preferred safer assets. Negative data from China and the eurozone added to concerns caused by speculations that the Federal Reserve may tamper its quantitative easing program.
Safe currencies rallied on the pessimistic mood of traders. The yen was rallying, but erased most of its gains on the previous trading session and fell on today’s session. The franc is still in danger as the Swiss National Bank is willing to contain the exchange rate, but the overseas news was playing in favor of the Swiss currency.
USD/CHF was at 0.9705 as of 1:31 GMT today after dropping from 0.9780 to 0.9684 yesterday. EUR/CHF declined from 1.2575 to 1.2525 before trading at 1.2533. CHF/JPY was up from 105.26 to 105.55.
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The Great Britain pound advanced today versus the US dollar after the second revision of GDP data confirmed that the nation’s economy emerged from recession. At the same time, the currency weakened against the euro and the Japanese yen.
UK gross domestic product grew 0.3 percent in the first three months of 2013 from the fourth quarter of 2013, according to the second revision. The reading was unchanged from the preliminary estimate. The data added to optimism about Britain’s economy and increased the appeal of the pound.
The sterling advanced against the dollar after the news. Yet the euro and the yen were too strong themselves and outperformed the UK currency.
GBP/USD went up from 1.5047 to 1.5109 as of 20:32 GMT today. EUR/GBP advanced from 0.8543 to 0.8558. GBP/JPY declined from 155.21 to 153.82, while its daily low was at 151.76.
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Earlier News About the Great Britain Pound:
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Canadian dollar is experiencing very choppy trading today, moving between gains and losses against major counterparts as traders and investors try to figure out what to do next.
Yesterday, markets rallied following Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke‘s testimony before Congress. Today, though, there is a different mood, with Chinese manufacturing reports indicating a contraction, and news out of the eurozone indicating continued recession.
Even so, there is a strange mix of demand for risk assets along with an aversion to them. Stocks are plunging around the world, particularly in Asia and Europe. Additionally, oil prices are much lower. These lower oil prices should normally bring the loonie down against the greenback, but instead the Canadian dollar is higher against its US counterpart right now.
Wild swings in the markets are reflecting in the Canadian dollar performance, which swings from gains to losses as traders try to figure out what all the economic data, plus rumors of the Fed tapering its easing program ahead of schedule, could mean for markets.
At 15:03 GMT USD/CAD is lower at 1.0345, down from the open at 1.0368. EUR/CAD is up to 1.3352 from the open at 1.3331. GBP/CAD is at 1.5585, down from the open at 1.5603. CAD/JPY is down to 98.0995 from the open at 99.5010.
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The Japanese yen climbed today, posting the biggest gain against the euro in five weeks, as Chinese manufacturing and speculations about the future monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve made investors nervous and unwilling to risk.
Today’s data from China was worse than market participants have anticipated, driving the Forex market into the risk-aversion mode. Traders were already concerned after yesterday’s comments of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks slumped 3.5 percent today as investors were looking for safer assets, avoiding risky ones.
USD/JPY dropped from 103.14 to 101.40 and EUR/JPY tumbled from 132.59 to 130.77 as of 9:35 GMT today.
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Earlier News About the Japanese Yen:
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The Swiss franc dropped today as Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan talked about possibility of negative interest rates and shifting of the cap on the franc.
Jordan warned about negative consequences of a strong currency:
An appreciation of the franc would endanger price stability and have structurally grave consequences for the Swiss economy.
He also spoke about changing the franc’s ceiling:
The adjustment of the minimum exchange rate is something that principally belongs to the options if needed. We will maintain the minimum exchange rate for as long as necessary.
Negative interest rates are also in the card, though they could have “side effects”. Indeed, the International Monetary Fund described adverse effects of negative rates, but was optimistic about the idea nevertheless.
USD/CHF was up from 0.9699 to 0.9801 as of 23:39 GMT today. EUR/CHF advanced from 1.2518 to 1.2586. CHF/JPY ticked down from 105.59 to 105.24.
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The US dollar was volatile today as Forex market participants were trying to interpret the words of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and to guess whether the central bank will remove stimulus.
Bernanke was testifying to the Congress today. At first, he warned about the danger of premature end to quantitative easing:
Premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but would also carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery and causing inflation to fall further.
The dollar dropped on speculations that such comments mean continuation of accommodative measures, yet later the currency rallied as the Chairman hinted that the asset-purchase program may be indeed scaled down.
The minutes of last Fed’s policy meeting were released today, showing that policy makers were divided about timing and conditions of quantitative easing end:
Most observed that the outlook for the labor market had shown progress since the program was started in September, but many of these participants indicated that continued progress, more confidence in the outlook, or diminished downside risks would be required before slowing the pace of purchases would become appropriate. A number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth; however, views differed about what evidence would be necessary and the likelihood of that outcome.
EUR/USD advanced from 1.2905 to 1.2997, but the rally failed and the currency pair dropped to 1.2858 as of 20:13 GMT today. GBP/USD slumped from 1.5152 to 1.5051 and its low of 1.5017 was lowest since March 14. USD/JPY went up from 102.45 to 103.72 (the highest since October 2008) before trading at 102.84
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After showing signs of mild recovery, the latest economic data out of the United Kingdom is proving disappointing. The result of the latest retail sales data is a lower pound, and speculation that things might not be turning around after all.
Instead of gaining by 0.1 per cent, as many economists had expected, retail sales in the United Kingdom fell by 1.3 per cent, reports the Office for National Statistics. This represents a rather large drop — especially when a small gain was expected.
The news comes on the heels of disappointing inflation data. The latest UK economic data indicates that maybe a recovery isn’t on that firm of footing after all. It’s not helping that the latest Bank of England minutes show that, once again, Mervyn King‘s efforts to expand the bond purchase program have failed. As a result, further economic stimulus isn’t forthcoming.
Pound hit a seven-week low against the euro today, and is the second-worst performer among the most developed currencies. Only the yen has performed worse than the pound in terms of major developed currencies. Things aren’t likely to improve dramatically for the pound anytime soon.
At 14:46 GMT GBP/USD is down to 1.5090 from the open at 1.5154. EUR/GBP is up to 0.8563 from the open at 0.8518. GBP/JPY is up to 155.9280 from the open at 155.2750.
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