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Canadian Economic Data Surprises Positively, Loonie Moves Higher

By , March 21, 2014 10:49 am

Canadian 100-dollar billsThe Canadian dollar climbed today with help of macroeconomic data from Canada that was surprisingly good, easing the negative impact that comments of the central bank governor had on the currency earlier this week.

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3 percent in February from January on a seasonally adjusted basis, accelerating from the previous month’s growth of 0.2 percent. Annual inflation slowed, but was still above the expected level. Retail sales grew 1.3 percent in January, exceeding the forecast value of 0.8 percent.

The positive data alleviated pessimism that haunted the loonie after Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz signaled that an interest rate cut is possible. Still, the currency was heading to weekly losses on the interest rate outlook and the Federal Reserve policy announcement.

USD/CAD fell from 1.1244 to 1.1200 and EUR/CAD declined from 1.5493 to 1.5439 as of 16:12 GMT today. CAD/JPY climbed from 91.03 to 91.34 after falling to 90.64.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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Poloz Says Interest Rate Cut Possible, Hurts Canadian Dollar

By , March 18, 2014 10:57 pm

Canadian 20-dollar billsThe Canadian dollar sank yesterday after Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz signaled that he is prepared to cut interest rates in case the economy worsens. The currency is attempting to recover today but is not good at this so far.

Poloz was not particularly optimistic in his speech to Halifax Chamber of Commerce yesterday, saying:

Canada’s economy has been in recovery since 2009 — for four years — yet economic growth still pales compared to the pre-crisis years. Likewise, the global economy has been growing, on average, at only about two-thirds the pace of growth in the four years prior to the crisis.

You’re right if you think it’s unusual to have such weak growth in a recovery. It is also unusual to have weak growth for such a prolonged period of time.

At the press-conference after the speech, the Governor said that he cannot rule out an interest rate cut.

Yesterday’s economic data was not bad at all as manufacturing sales rose 1.5 percent to $ 50.4 billion in January, exceeding forecasts and demonstrating the largest increase since February 2013. Yet it was not able to rescue the falling Canadian dollar.

USD/CAD surged from 1.1050 to 1.1133 yesterday and traded at about 1.1125 as of 3:23 GMT today. EUR/CAD was near 1.5491 following the jump from 1.5384 to 1.5513. CAD/JPY sank from 92.05 to 91.07 on the previous trading session and remained near this level on the current session.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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Canadian Dollar Gets Boost from Risk Appetite

By , March 17, 2014 11:33 am

All the Canadian dollar bills denominationsSentiment has improved a bit today, following last week’s risk aversion. The result is that the Canadian dollar is getting a bit of a boost against its major counterparts. Part of the reason for the risk appetite is that there hasn’t been any substantial response to the results of the referendum held in Crimea over the weekend.

For now, risk appetite is the story to start the week. Even though Crimea has declared independence from Ukraine and asked to join Russia, the reality is that many are still waiting for the rest of the world to decide its response. So, in this pause, there is a bit of risk appetite, and the Canadian dollar is reaping some of the benefits, even though commodity prices are slightly lower.

Even with Canada’s gains, though, trading is likely to take place within a tight range. Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is expected to deliver a speech on Tuesday, and many are waiting for Statistics Canada to release February inflation data on Friday. For now, the loonie is likely to move with market sentiment. Later this week, there will be more specific guidance.

At 13:49 GMT USD/CAD is down to 1.1077 from the open at 1.1102. EUR/CAD is down to 1.5440 from the open at 1.5442. GBP/CAD is down to 1.8441 from the open at 1.8479.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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Canadian Dollar Faces Difficulties Ahead of Crimea Referendum

By , March 14, 2014 10:05 am

Some Canadian dollar billsMarkets in general are struggling today, thanks largely to concerns over the referendum vote in Crimea on Sunday. Additionally, it’s not helping that there are worries about Chinese growth and other issues weighing on risk appetite today. Plus, there are questions about an independent Quebec to consider.

Even though oil prices are higher on the day, the Canadian dollar is struggling against some of its major counterparts, particularly the US dollar. With risk appetite fading ahead of Sunday’s referendum in Crimea and on the news that Chinese growth continues at a slower pace, the loonie is facing difficulties.

On Sunday, there is a referendum in Crimea about whether or not to rejoin Russia. Crimea has long been under Ukraine’s jurisdiction, but Russian troops have been heavily involved in the area since the end of the Olympics. On top of that, growth in China is slower than expected, and that is taking away from risk appetite.

There are also questions about what would happen if Quebec were to become independent. Leaders of the faction for Quebec independence say they would use the loonie, but it’s not a sure thing.

At 13:22 GMT USD/CAD is up to 1.1094 from the open at 1.1076. EUR/CAD is up to 1.5402 from the open at 1.5361. GBP/CAD is down to 1.8407 from the open at 1.8409.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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CAD Suffers from Poor Canadian Employment Data

By , March 7, 2014 10:59 pm

Canadian 50- and 100-dollar billsThe Canadian dollar ended Friday with big losses after the domestic employment report disappointed Forex traders, while the US employment data added to the woes, driving most major currencies down against the US dollar.

Canadian employment fell by 7,000 in February, being nowhere near the analysts’ estimate of 16,900 growth. The unemployment rate was steady at 7.0 percent. As a bit of good news, the trade balance deficit narrowed from $ 922 million in December to $ 177 million in January, while economists have thought it would increase.

The market paid attention to the bad part of economic data, driving the loonie down. Traders felt optimism for the currency ahead the Friday’s data, but the employment report reminded them that the Canadian economy is not yet particularly strong.

USD/CAD jumped from 1.0982 to close at 1.1088 and EUR/CAD soared from 1.5223 to 1.5382. CAD/JPY tumbled from 93.79 to 93.15.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Forex News

Canadian Dollar Appreciates with Support of Positive Fundamentals

By , March 6, 2014 2:19 pm

Canadian coins on Canadian dollar billsThe Canadian dollar advanced today with help of domestic economic reports that suggested that Canada’s growth gains momentum, adding to signs of improvement in the global economy. As most other currencies, the loonie lost to the euro, which was the top performer on the Forex market today.

Building permits surged 8.5 percent in January, following the 4.8 percent decrease in December. The increase vastly outpaced the predicted gain of 1.9 percent. The Richard Ivey School of Business Purchasing Mangers’ Index rose from 56.8 in January to 57.2 in February.

Tomorrow’s data is expected to be mildly positive as analysts predict that the employment report will show decent growth. The improving outlook for the Canada’s economy increases the attractiveness of the nation’s currency, which was not performing particularly well this year.

USD/CAD declined from 1.1027 to 1.0986, reaching the low of 1.0954 intraday, and CAD/JPY advanced from 92.72 to 93.66 as of 19:01 GMT today. At the same time, EUR/CAD was up from 1.5143 to 1.5226.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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Canadian Dollar Gets Boost as World Calms Down

By , March 5, 2014 8:24 am

Canadian 20-dollar billsLoonie is getting a boost today, thanks in large part to the fact that the world appears to be calming down and risk appetite is returning. Thanks to expected improvements to the Canadian economy, and to an improving situation around the world, the Canadian dollar is heading mostly higher today.

Even though the Bank of Canada is expected to keep its rate relatively low, at 1 per cent, until next year, there is still some optimism about the Canadian economy. Many expect to see better employment data on Friday, and there are hopes that the housing bubble has been mostly contained.

Also helping the loonie in Forex trading is the fact that things around the world have calmed down. Russia ordered its troops back to base, effectively ending its quasi-invasion of Ukraine. However, there are still some concerns that Russians will return to the Crimea. Additionally, China is opening up to more private investment and promising to keep economic growth at 7.5 per cent for the rest of the year.

All of this good news is boosting risk appetite and helping the loonie.

At 15:09 GMT USD/CAD is down to 1.1071 from the open at 1.1100. EUR/CAD is down to 1.5181 from the open at 1.5250. GBP/CAD is also lower, dropping to 1.8489 from the open at 1.8504.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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Canadian Dollar Mostly Lower Against Counterparts

By , February 26, 2014 7:41 am

A fan of 100-dollar notesCanadian dollar is mostly lower today, drifting a bit as Forex traders consider their next moves. Many traders are in wait and see mode, with data releases coming up and with questions about what’s next for the Bank of Canada.

Loonie is heading a bit lower against many of its major counterparts today. The currency is drifting a bit with many Forex traders waiting to see what is happening with US economic data. There are concerns that the harsh winter weather will continue to weigh on US economic data, and what happens in the United States generally impacts Canada and the loonie.

Also affecting the loonie, and resulting in a sort of rangebound drift, are questions about what’s next from the Bank of Canada. Many wonder if the BOC will have to cut rates in order to help stimulate the Canadian economy, which has been flagging, or whether there’s enough positive to keep rates steady.

Canadian dollar is getting a little help from oil prices, but it’s not much. There’s a little bit to help support the loonie somewhat, but not enough to help the currency overcome its losses.

At 14:29 GMT USD/CAD is up to 1.1101 from the open at 1.1087. EUR/CAD is down to 1.5201 from the open at 1.5231. GBP/CAD is up to 1.8484 from the open at 1.8475.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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Canadian Dollar Pulls Back on Commodities, China

By , February 20, 2014 7:30 am

All the Canadian dollar bills denominationsCanadian dollar was higher in earlier trading, but has now pulled back. Thanks to concerns about lower commodities and the fact that disappointing data out of China is weighing on sentiment and high beta currencies, the loonie is now losing ground in some cases, particularly against the greenback.

Trading for the Canadian dollar is a bit choppy right now. Earlier, the loonie saw gains against most of its major counterparts, but has since pulled back against some of its trading partners, particularly the greenback. Concerns about what’s next for the global economy are weighing on the Canadian dollar and other high beta currencies. News out of China has been disappointing, and there are worries about the slowing seen in the US economic recovery.

Also putting pressure on the loonie is the fact that commodities are lower today. The Canadian dollar is considered a commodity currency, especially tied to oil. With oil prices and gold prices struggling today, it is little surprise that a commodity currency like the Canadian dollar is struggling as well.

At 14:04 GMT the loonie is mostly lower against its major counterparts. USD/CAD is up to 1.1091 from the open at 1.1082. EUR/CAD is down to to 1.5215 from the open at 1.5217. GBP/CAD is up to 1.5810 from the open at 1.8490.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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Canadian Employment Growth Exceeds Forecasts, Benefiting CAD

By , February 7, 2014 8:09 pm

A heap of Canadian dollar billsCanadian employment data was very good, better even than optimistic forecasts. It allowed that Canadian dollar to gain on its US counterpart and the Japanese yen, but the loonie was not able to outperform the euro.

Canadian employers added 24,900 jobs in January, compared to the median specialists’ estimate of 19,700. The increase followed the December’s slump by 45,900. The unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage point to 7.0 percent, a bit more than was expected.

The Canadian currency surged against other majors after the data was released, but the euro managed to pare losses versus the loonie, even though the shared European currency was not particularly strong itself. Meanwhile, the US employment data was disappointing sending the greenback lower against the loonie.

USD/CAD was down from 1.1068 to the closing price of 1.1038, reaching the low of 1.0967 intraday. EUR/CAD declined from 1.5041 to 1.4905, but rebounded and closed at 1.5056. CAD/JPY jump from 92.20 to 93.38 before it settled at 92.62.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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